04 / PRICE TRENDS & DATA ANALYSIS

Market Insights

Two sections: general-purpose synthetic rubber price trends for January to October 2026, and an analysis of China's September 2026 butyl rubber imports and exports.

01

General-Purpose Synthetic Rubber Price Trends

PRICE TRENDS

Average prices for SBR 1712, SBR 1502 and BR 9000 from January to October 2026. The curves are daily data; the table below shows monthly averages, in RMB per tonne.

SBR 1712latest 13,800 RMB/tSBR 1502latest 15,900 RMB/tBR 9000latest 16,000 RMB/t
Average prices of SBR 1712, SBR 1502 and BR 9000, January to October 2026 Horizontal axis: January to October 2026. Vertical axis: average price in RMB per tonne, ranging from 10,300 to 19,700. The three curves are SBR 1712, SBR 1502 and BR 9000. Data through 23 October 2026. 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000 17,000 19,000 21,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Monthly average prices for the three grades, January to October 2026, in RMB per tonne
MonthSBR 1712SBR 1502BR 9000
Jan11,13512,13512,129
Feb11,83913,00012,836
Mar15,25516,25216,058
Apr16,79717,69717,870
May14,47715,37715,252
Jun12,06713,22313,193
Jul11,31013,02313,023
Aug12,01013,90313,868
Sep13,82015,72315,723
Oct to 23 Oct14,14316,20416,248

Source: internal price ledger (1723均价.xlsx), sheet 2026, daily averages. The curves use daily data; the table uses monthly arithmetic averages. October 2026 is recorded through 23 October (23 days). BR 9000 and SBR 1502 quote at the same or nearly the same level most of the time, so BR 9000 is drawn as a dashed line. Prices on this page are for internal reference only and do not constitute a quotation.

02

Butyl Rubber Import & Export Analysis

DATA ANALYSIS

A summary of China’s butyl rubber imports and exports in September 2026. Based on the full customs declaration records under HS codes 40023110 / 40023190 / 40023910 / 40023990 — 211 records, 29,277 tonnes — it reviews scale and structure, partner concentration, trade modes and price stratification.

Looked at through net imports alone, the month is almost balanced: net imports of just 2,481 tonnes and USD 6.56 million, less than 16% of imports. Unpack the structure, though, and China is a high-volume two-way hub: 15,879 tonnes imported and 13,398 tonnes exported, 29,277 tonnes in total, 11.8 times the net balance. Measuring China’s external dependence on butyl rubber by the net import gap systematically understates the real volume of cargo moving through the country; for purchasing and sales decisions, what matters is the two-source concentration risk on the import side and the customer-following structure on the export side.

Imports

15,879t

USD 48.87 million · average USD 3.078/kg · 14 origins

Exports

13,398t

USD 42.31 million · average USD 3.158/kg · 45 destinations

Net imports

2,481t

Net import value USD 6.56 million

Export / import volume ratio

84.4%

Halogenated butyl reaches 92%

Import CR3

91.0%

HHI 2,968 · highly concentrated (>1,800)

Export CR3

57.5%

HHI 1,421 · fragmented

01Two-way hub: halogenated butyl has almost levelled out

The two product groups behave quite differently. Regular butyl imported 3,848 tonnes and exported 2,328 tonnes, a net import of 1,521 tonnes; exports are only 60% of imports, the classic profile of a structural demand gap. Halogenated butyl imported 12,030 tonnes and exported 11,070 tonnes, a net import of only 960 tonnes and an export-to-import ratio of 92%, close to balanced two-way trade; processing and re-export characteristics are clearly stronger than pure consumption.

Channel structure confirms it: 48.1% of imports and 22.5% of exports moved through bonded and customs-supervised channels, and for Russian cargo the bonded share reached 84%. Much of the flow happens outside the customs territory or inside bonded operations, which is exactly why “net imports of 2,481 tonnes” both understates two-way volume and obscures structural dependence.

02Imports: two dominant sources, Saudi Arabia buying share with price

Of 14 origins, Russia (36.2%), Saudi Arabia (35.4%) and Singapore (19.3%) together account for 91.0% of import value, with an HHI of 2,968, far above the highly concentrated threshold. Russia’s 5,454 tonnes and Saudi Arabia’s 6,129 tonnes make up 71.6% of import value between them; any logistics or policy disruption at either source could not be covered by other origins in the short term. Of Singapore’s 2,942 tonnes, 1,900 tonnes is regular butyl, which makes Singapore more a regional trading and allocation centre than an origin.

Within halogenated butyl, Saudi landed prices average USD 2.823/kg, 14.1% below Russia’s USD 3.286/kg, and the volume comes with it. This is the month’s most important competitive signal: if the spread persists, the benchmark for Russian term contracts will be dragged down systematically, and Saudi cargo can serve as a usable price anchor. Whether the lower price corresponds to prime material suitable for tire inner liners must be verified against specifications and small-lot trials; average price alone cannot establish substitutability.

Channel differences also set the operating rhythm: 84% of Russian cargo moves through bonded channels, stored in bonded warehouses and declared in batches as needed, so spot availability is better; Saudi cargo is weighted more toward ordinary trade, closer to point-to-point term supply — better on price, but volumes must be committed earlier.

03Exports: following customers overseas, fragmented but without pricing power

Exports go to 45 destinations with an HHI of only 1,421; the top three — Vietnam (29.7%), Thailand (15.5%) and South Korea (12.2%) — total 57.5%, in sharp contrast with 91.0% on the import side. China buys from few, sells to many, and the direction of bargaining power is clear: passive on the import side, flexible but without market leadership on the export side.

Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia, together with Serbia, Poland and Mexico, overlap closely with where Chinese tire makers have built plants abroad in recent years. We therefore infer that export growth comes mainly from raw material demand at those overseas bases rather than from natural expansion in overseas end markets. This is a medium-strength inference based on geographic coincidence: customs records do not identify the final buyer, so re-exports and purchases by non-Chinese local plants cannot be excluded, and the consignor lists would be needed to cross-check.

Price stratification is equally clear: Vietnam at 3.591, Cambodia at 3.702, Taiwan, China at 3.741 and South Korea at 3.305 USD/kg form the high band; Thailand at 2.698, Japan at 2.494 and Poland at 2.35 USD/kg form the low band, a gap of nearly 60%. Thailand’s large volume at low price needs checking for intra-group transfer pricing before being used as an external quotation reference. By province, exports concentrate in Shandong (39.8%), Zhejiang (38.7%) and Shanghai (15.2%); Zhejiang’s 5,637 tonnes average 2.904 while Shandong’s 5,029 tonnes average 3.351, a difference of about 13% — two distinct models, one competing on volume and one on price.

04The price inversion: not stronger competitiveness, but a coding mismatch

Export prices averaged USD 3.158/kg against USD 3.078/kg for imports, a spread of +0.080 USD/kg (+2.6%) — the reverse of the usual assumption that imports are high-end and exports low-end. The reason lies in the commodity code structure: on the import side, “other halogenated butyl” (40023990) reached 6,492 tonnes, 39.4% of imports, at an average of only 2.965; on the export side, halogenated butyl was almost entirely primary forms (40023910, 11,019 tonnes).

Using the report’s counterfactual, if the low-priced “other” volume were valued at 3.117 as primary-form halogenated butyl, monthly import value would rise by about USD 990,000, the average import price would climb to 3.140, and the import-export spread would narrow to roughly +0.6%, effectively disappearing. The positive spread therefore stems from a coding mismatch — low-grade in, prime material out — and does not indicate stronger export pricing power. The higher the share of low-priced imports, the more it suggests that import substitution is happening at the low end while prime high-end material still depends on imports.

05Link to our own product range

Butyl rubber and halogenated butyl rubber are among our main product families, predominantly Exxon premium grades. Our logistics network includes Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Japan among its origins, and China, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia among its customer markets — closely overlapping the main sources and export destinations the report identifies. The two-source concentration, the share of bonded channels and the export price stratification can all serve as industry reference points for purchasing rhythm and customer quotations. Note that the report is industry-level statistics: it contains no company, contract or grade fields, does not correspond to our specific business, and does not constitute any quotation basis.

Data scope and limits of use

  • This is a single-month cross-section for September 2026. No previous-month or prior-year data is available, so no month-on-month, year-on-year or trend conclusions are drawn.
  • Customs averages are weighted blended prices, affected by grade, trade mode (bonded / processing / ordinary) and settlement terms; they are not equivalent to market quotations.
  • The final destination of goods in bonded and specially supervised zones is not known, so import “inflows” may not all enter domestic consumption.
  • The data contains no company, contract or brand-grade fields, so specific buyers and sellers and product grades cannot be identified. Six price anomalies were identified (including two extremes at 14.133 and 1.780 USD/kg) and excluded from the core average discussion.

Source: China Butyl Rubber Import & Export Data Analysis Report, September 2026 (data period September 2026; report dated 12 November 2026). Underlying records: 37 regular butyl imports / 60 regular butyl exports / 52 halogenated imports / 62 halogenated exports — 211 records, 29,277 tonnes. Quantities in tonnes, values in USD 10,000, average prices in USD/kg. This page is a summary prepared for internal reference.